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How To Take a Seasonal Chart And Get a TechMeme Headline and Digg Traffic
I almost always enjoy Techcrunch writer Erick Schonfeld’s posts as they are in-depth and well thought out. But this time the NY-er just got it wrong. Erick has posted a chart of Facebook traffic from Comscore (shown below with my edits) and the headline, "Facebook Fatigue? Visitors Level Off In the U.S.".
Apparently, without any additional research on why there might be a dip, he believes the dip is due to the Facebook application spam and if people have had enough that they are leaving the social network. I’ve highlighted in the chart below the dip from the same time that Erick refers to in 2007 for comparison purposes.
The truth is that whatever caused the graph to have the same shape last winter is causing the graph to have that shape again this year. Sure, Erick may be proven right, but it’s too early to tell — by a lot.
The real question we should be asking and discussing is: Has Facebook reached a level of saturation with their core userbase? Naturally a new "class" enters Facebook each year and that should be able to keep their numbers consistent as the older folks potentially step out of action. We know that Facebook has been starting to target the LinkedIn crowd and if Facebook plans to see growth this year, it’s got to come from outside the college student demographic.
Techmeme not only has a link to the TC story, but it’s the top headline currently. And the story on TC looks like it is headed towards Digg frontpage status. Wow.
Steven Hodson wonders if it would be better to just blame mother nature in this case.
I just want to say that was a very helpful graph. Edward Tufte would be proud
Allen,
I totally agree with your thesis. Erick clearly fell victim to a focus on short-term developments rather than long term trends. His decision to make a bold call – Facebook Fatigue – may be correct down the road but, for now, it’s premature.
My sense is Erick – like many bloggers who have been on Facebook for a long time – believe Facebook is on the decline only because their own interest in Facebook is waning. Look at how many bloggers, including myself, have embraced Twitter so enthusiastically recently while our Facebook accounts gather dust.
The reality, however, is we don’t represent the mainstream, and we fall into the trap of thinking that what we think is happening is also happening to the masses as well. Well, I think this isn’t true when it comes to Facebook. As much as we may be tired of Facebook and application spam, there are million of people who are just starting to climb on the Facebook bandwagon.
Bottom line: Erick and others need to be careful about claiming Facebook is on the decline unless they have solid data to support their claims.
He was also well behind on this story, theregister.co.uk had this story yesterday. I even threw the link up on my twitter to the story. Its http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/02/21/fb_nielsen_fall/ if you were wondering.
I’m a fan of Erick’s too, since way back; but I agree that saturation and general SN fatigue — not necessarily application spam — are a more likely source.
BTW, I’m also a fan of Allen’s…. and think you have it right. As usual.
In this case with the TechCrunch I think it is more about he headline grab than any real news value. After all a well crafted headline will get the digg spike in traffic which is always good for the advertising revenue.
“Will the Facebook fatigue get worse, or is this just a temporary dip?”
So maybe it is seasonal. Thanks for the answer.
And I don’t control Techmeme, you know. The reason I posted was because there was some discussion about Facebook based on UK numbers from Nielsen. The U.S. and global numbers tell a broader story, in my opinion. And they had previously been unreported.
Well said Allen, we linked you:
http://mashable.com/2008/02/22/facebook-growth/
Hopefully we’ll see you in NYC tomorrow :-)