I totally agree with your thesis. Erick clearly fell victim to a focus on short-term developments rather than long term trends. His decision to make a bold call – Facebook Fatigue – may be correct down the road but, for now, it’s premature.

My sense is Erick – like many bloggers who have been on Facebook for a long time – believe Facebook is on the decline only because their own interest in Facebook is waning. Look at how many bloggers, including myself, have embraced Twitter so enthusiastically recently while our Facebook accounts gather dust.

The reality, however, is we don’t represent the mainstream, and we fall into the trap of thinking that what we think is happening is also happening to the masses as well. Well, I think this isn’t true when it comes to Facebook. As much as we may be tired of Facebook and application spam, there are million of people who are just starting to climb on the Facebook bandwagon.

Bottom line: Erick and others need to be careful about claiming Facebook is on the decline unless they have solid data to support their claims.

BTW, I’m also a fan of Allen’s…. and think you have it right. As usual.

So maybe it is seasonal. Thanks for the answer.

And I don’t control Techmeme, you know. The reason I posted was because there was some discussion about Facebook based on UK numbers from Nielsen. The U.S. and global numbers tell a broader story, in my opinion. And they had previously been unreported.

Hopefully we’ll see you in NYC tomorrow :-)