Google is bubble watched

The NY Times has an article today about Dave Winer watching Google as the par for the bubble course. In February of this year, I attended Search Engine Strategies conference. For several hours I walked around the expo center. About 75% of the vendors had something to do with Google. Most were using the Google APIs to create applications from there. And I noted to the two people I attended with that if Google turned off their APIs, this room would be quite barren.

From the article:

But Dave Winer, the protoblogger and technology maven, thinks he has discovered a yardstick. “ Google stock will crash,” he wrote this week. “That’s how we’ll know” (scripting.com). Shares of Google recently crossed $500 and settled at $480.80 yesterday.

Web 2.0, according to Mr. Winer, “is nothing more than an aftermarket for Google.” So many start-ups rely on Google — both as a basis for creating Web sites and as a channel for selling Google ads — that the entirety of Web 2.0 (the new generation of sites that rely on interactivity and open systems) will stand or fall with Google, Mr. Winer says.

“When Google crashes,” he wrote, “that’s the end of that, no more wave to ride, no more aftermarket, Bubble Burst 2.0. And the flip of this is also true — as long as Google’s stock stays up, no bubble burst.”

There is no doubt that Dave is correct, if you can browse 15 web sites, and not see either a Google search, a Google adsense program, or a Google api usage, share them with me.

Google stock won't drop (massively) until someone else or something else comes and unseats it. And until Microsoft and Yahoo! get their game hats on, this does not appear to be a reality. You see, Google has so much cash that they can buy anyone who even remotely poses a threat. That's the benefit of cash. And as long as their employees are happy, things should remain as status quo.

I like Google even after they disappointed me at ad:tech. I am just not crazy about starting a company that has no business model other than to use the heck out of Google's services.