How Will Mobile Be Monetized?

In my 2008 predictions I noted that widget advertising and RSS advertising will be hot in 2008. We've started to see that push with CBS' Local plan and DoubleClick's Widget Ads, both announced today. I also wrote that RSS advertising would pick up, we still have work to do here.

We've seen Web sites designed for mobile devices from companies like WireNode (our coverage). I see the benefit of these light versions but believe the future of mobile is in a rich experience. I've been using an iPhone and a Windows Mobile-equipped device for a bit over a month now. While the Web experience on both has been excellent, each time I fire up the browser I begin to wonder how we will monetize this version of the Internet. With both Safari on the iPhone and the Opera Mobile browsers, you move to the content and functions you are interested in. Large banners appear to be missed each time, 300x250 boxes work best when scrolling. On the iPhone you can jump and zoom which can route you past even having the chance to view the ad(s).

When AOL acquired Bebo last week, Bebo CEO Joanna Shields spoke of "engagement marketing". Engagement marketing might work on a Web site, but will it be as effective as Shields claims on a mobile? If Beacon is still the future of advertising for Facebook, will it work on a mobile? What about content offerings including blogs and site networks like AOL's variety of Web content sites?

CPM ads work fine for the publisher/social network as the payment comes on load. But for CPA/CPC ads, the ability to generate revenue will be very low if at all. Will we see social networks charge for mobile access down the road? What about a freemium model where you might get the light version for free and if you want full network access (or additional perks) you pay a small monthly fee? Might my $1/feed concept be extended into the mobile space?

Thumbplay claimed over $100 million in revenue in 2007. The service provides mobile ringtones, graphics, games, and content packs. What if Bebo/Facebook/MySpace provided a ringtone or game as a perk for those who spent $x/month for the mobile version?

Should content providers and social networks consider mobile as a loss while building their mobile platforms? How do you see mobile being monetized for social networks and content providers, either today or in the future? Is it with advertising, pay for play or some new form of monetization?