The Good Doctor Makes an Incorrect Analysis - re: Netscape Traffic

One of my favorite reads is the good doctor (yes, a real doctor), Tony Hung. His commentary and opinions are almost always on point and accurate. However last night he wrote a piece that had an incorrect diagnosis. He should know that a doctor can’t just look at a chart and know what’s wrong without talking to the patient (or in this case investigating the cause). Unfortunately, Duncan at TechCrunch immediately posted about it as well, thereby furthering the incorrect diagnosis.

Here is Tony’s analysis:

About a month ago, I wrote about how Netscape dumped its social news component into its own site, Propeller.com and wondered rhetorically how it would turn out — with the subtext being, perhaps, how *Netscape* would really fare now that its social news component was on its own. Well, a month has come and gone, and I think that if Alexa is any indication (and yes, it certainly has its problems), the answer might be “substantial”.

He then shows the following chart to backup his "substantial" claim:

So what did Tony miss?

• Naturally when you switch domains traffic to the former will decrease
• If we look back before Netscape became Jason’s social news failure, those people who liked the old Netscape left. They wouldn’t have any reason to return after the site moved to the Propeller domain.
• And lastly, and most importantly, netscape.com does not exist anymore - it redirects to aol.com - hello drop. Rogelio Bernal Andreo, coRank CEO agrees. His comment on TechCrunch, "I just noticed that nestcape.com now redirects to netscape.aol.com. So I guess the whole argument is just flawed then. It doesn’t take into account what I mentioned before, and it doesn’t consider that netscape.com is now a redirect to netscape.aol.com."

Check out our previous Propeller coverage including my open letter to the AOL executive team.