metrics Archive

LinkedIn community evangelist Mario Sundar has posted a chart from Nielsen showing the top social networks and their growth over the past year (March-March). I’ve embedded the chart below. The analysis is based on U.S. home and work traffic and does not include international traffic.

LinkedIn shows growth at 319% while Facebook only grew 98% and MySpace barely grew at 9%. I’d suggest that Facebook and MySpace have the market nearly tapped so their growth will be slower than LinkedIn. Buzznet also grew nicely at 49%.

A year ago the Facebook fans claimed LinkedIn was dead and that Facebook would replace LinkedIn as the business networking tool of choice. I haven’t seen that happen and if anything, I’ve seen more LinkedIn requests than Facebook requests lately. Do you believe Facebook will still replace LinkedIn as the business social network?

Update: Dave Barger said something I think is worth repeating, "More people wokeup to the fact the LinkedIn wasn’t just for JobHunters than Facebook was not just for College kids."

Drama 2.0 also wonders Are the Most LinkedIn Really LinkedOut?

comScore has released some new data today on online video reach for a variety of countries including the U.S., Canada, Germany, France and the U.K. The data shows that of these five countries, Canadians watch more videos per user and have the highest reach percentage of total online population.

Here are the five most popular online video destinations by country:

• U.S. – Google Sites, Fox Interactive, Yahoo Sites, Viacom, Microsoft Sites
• Canada – Google Sites, Microsoft Sites, CTVglobemedia, Yahoo Sites, DailyMotion
• U.K. – Google Sites, BBC, Microsoft Sites, Yahoo Sites, Fox Interactive
• France – Google Sites, DailyMotion, Groupe TF1, Amazon Sites, Yahoo Sites
• Germany – Google Sites, Vivendi, ProSiebenSat1, Clipfish, Fox Interactive

So how much of the Canadian win goes to startups b5media, FreshBooks and ConceptShare?

Nielsen has a variety of interesting charts out today showing total advertising spend for 2006 vs. 2007.  Some stats of note: Internet advertising was up 18.9%, newspaper advertising was down -15.2%. One thing to consider is that many newspapers have moved heavily online so while the newspaper ad might be down, they picked up some of the uptick in Internet ads. Still a huge loss as newspapers is a mature market while Internet is still in overall growth mode.

Overall ad growth was only up 0.6% while ad growth in Asia was up 12.1% and in the combined Europe/Middle East and Africa region growth was at 5%.

From a category standpoint, financial services and wireless services both increased overall ad spend by 12-14%. It’s important to note that this was basically before the meltdown took full effect. Automotive ad spend was down by 11% year over year.

  Media Category                             2006 vs. 2007
                                                % Change
  Internet                                         18.9 %
  National Magazines                                7.6 %
  Outdoor                                           7.2 %
  Nat'l Sunday Supplements                          4.9 %
  National Cable TV                                 2.2 %
  Spanish-Language TV                               1.5 %
  Network TV                                       -1.5 %
  Local Magazines                                  -1.7 %
  Spot Radio                                       -2.0 %
  Spot TV Markets 101-210                          -2.6 %
  Network Radio                                    -3.9 %
  B-to-B Magazines                                 -4.0 %
  Local Sunday Supplements                         -4.9 %
  Spot TV Markets 1-100                            -5.1 %
  Local Newspaper                                  -7.5 %
  Nat'l Newspaper                                  -7.7 %
  Total Advertising Spending                        0.6 %

  Source:  Nielsen Monitor-Plus
  -Syndicated TV and FSI Coupons were excluded due to methodology changes
  -Newspaper reflects display ads only

I heard a lot of sighs this morning. Many video hosts just collectively said, "Damn." YouTube has launched video analytics for videos hosted on YouTube. I can’t seem to find the stats on the videos I’ve uploaded but in the example screenshot below, they look relatively robust. The ability to view more stats than just number of views is critical for marketing and potentially selling advertising. As an analytics nut, I can’t wait to start to playing with the tool.

What I’d like to see is integration with Google Analytics for Web sites to complete the analytics chain.

This is a game changer for the ability to sell-in sponsorships. Marketers will now ask you for YouTube stats pages when they approach you for an ad buy. Prove what country is viewing your views, and confirm that our demo is your demo. The days of buying video ads on "number of views" or "number of subscribers" alone are over.

Josh Catone from Readwriteweb notes, "Currently, the stats package does lack a few important metrics such as search engine referral information, being able to tell where users bail on a video, and general link referral info." There’s also some limited information on the YouTube product blog.

Side question, where are my Twitter analytics?

Tonight we have learned that the Birthday Calendar Facebook application has hit two million users. Pretty awesome as they have only been live on the Facebook system for a month. Created by BigDates Solutions, they note, "With access to over 20,000 paper greeting cards, 2,000 ecards, and 20 gift cards, users of Birthday Calendar should have no problem expressing their sentiments on special occasions." So basically you get an attempted upsell when you are notified of a friend’s event.

From the press release and according to Nasser Gaemi, CEO of BigDates Solutions, “Our ability to leverage the Facebook social graph has created the most exciting distribution opportunity in our company’s eight year history. We’ve never seen this kind of viral growth.”

I added the application to my Facebook profile this evening. You click the link for the app, then the standard Facebook checkboxes. Once you click submit, you are presented with an initial screen for Birthday Calendar to spam send the application to your friends.

I clicked the Skip button as I try not to annoy my Facebook friends.

But that’s not enough for Birthday Calendar. You then are presented with this message:

I sure hope that in ’08 we will see some real metrics for Facebook applications (and other platforms as well). Is this really viral growth as the CEO notes above?

Nielsen has released several top 10 lists for the U.S. today. I’ve grabbed the Internet related lists and they are below. Interesting that Google (GOOG) just barely beat out Yahoo (YHOO), Austin always seems to rank #1 for blogging and San Francisco doesn’t rank on any usage chart. My Name is Earl takes the top spot for buzz online about a TV show, American Idol only buzzed about half as much, hmm?

Here are the lists:

                        Top 10 Websites in the U.S.
                                                         Average Monthly
       Rank   Brand                                   Unique Audience (000)
        1     Google                                          110,002
        2     Yahoo!                                          108,111
        3     MSN/Windows Live                                 95,501
        4     Microsoft                                        94,856
        5     AOL Media Network                                91,653
        6     Fox Interactive Media                            64,648
        7     eBay                                             59,586
        8     YouTube                                          49,815
        9     Wikipedia                                        45,496
        10    Apple                                            43,495

    Source: Nielsen Online, NetView
      Note: Data from January - October 2007

                     Top 10 TV Programs "Buzzed" About Online
       Rank   TV Programs                                     Buzz Index
        1     My Name is Earl                                    100
        2     American Idol                                       55
        3     Grey's Anatomy                                      43
        4     The Simpsons                                        40
        5     West Wing                                           37
        6     The Oprah Winfrey Show                              34
        7     Lost                                                30
        8     Sex And The City                                    22
        9     House                                               21
        10    Battlestar Galactica                                20

    Source: Nielsen Online, Buzzmetrics
      Note: Data from January 7 - December 10, 2007

       Top U.S. Markets for Adults who have Read/Contributed to a Blog
                            within the Past Month
                                                  % of adults who have used
                                                   the internet to read or
                                                 contribute to blogs within
      Rank   Market                                   the past 30 days
        1    Austin DMA                                       15
        2    Portland DMA San Francisco/Oakland/San Jose      14
        3    DMA                                              13
        4    Seattle/Tacoma DMA                               13
        5    Honolulu DMA                                     12
        6    San Diego DMA                                    12
        7    Dallas/Fort Worth DMA                            11
        8    Columbus DMA                                     11
        9    Nashville DMA                                    11
       10    Colorado Springs/Pueblo DMA                      11

             National Average                                  8

    Source: Scarborough Research, Scarborough USA+ Release 1 2007
            (Current Release)

		Top U.S. Markets for Adults who have Downloaded Music/
               Listen to Audio Clips Online within the Past Month

                                                    % of adults who download
                                                     music/listen to audio
                                                    clips online within the
     Rank   Markets                                        past month
      1     Austin DMA                                         23
      2     Salt Lake City DMA                                 21
      3     San Diego DMA                                      21
      4     San Francisco/Oakland/San Jose DMA                 20
      5     New York DMA                                       18
      6     Atlanta DMA                                        18
      7     Chicago DMA                                        18
      8     Houston DMA                                        18
      9     Washington, D.C. DMA                               17
      10    Los Angeles DMA                                    17

            National Average                                   15

    Source: Scarborough Research, Scarborough USA+ Release 1 2007

	   Top 10 Internet Brands Accessed via a Mobile Device

                                                 Average Monthly Unique
     Rank   Mobile Internet Brand                      Audience (000)
      1     Yahoo!                                       16,563
      2     Google                                       10,829
      3     MSN                                           9,276
      4     AOL                                           6,481
      5     The Weather Channel                           6,409
      6     CNN                                           5,962
      7     ESPN                                          4,902
      8     MapQuest                                      3,685
      9     FOX                                           2,613
      10    CitySearch                                    2,370

    Source: Nielsen Mobile, Mobile Internet Report
      Note: Data from January - October 2007, U.S. Only.

                     Top 10 U.S. Markets for Text Messaging*

                                              % of adults who use the text
                                               messaging feature on their
     Rank    Markets                                   cell phone
       1     Houston DMA                                  38
       2     Austin DMA                                   38
       3     Washington, D.C. DMA                         38
       4     Miami/Ft. Lauderdale DMA                     37
       5     Atlanta DMA                                  37
       6     Salt Lake City DMA                           36
       7     Seattle/Tacoma DMA                           36
       8     San Diego DMA                                36
       9     El Paso DMA                                  36
      10     New York DMA                                 35

             National Average                             31

    Source: Scarborough Research, Scarborough USA+ Release 1 2007
            (Current 6 months only)

     * Text messaging: Those consumers who used the text messaging feature
       on their cell phone

One of the things I have found very interesting over the past year is how quick Internet viewers are to believe whatever an "A-lister" says. It could be somewhat misleading through absolutely incorrect, but slap a popular name on it and it’s gospel. I have two good examples, one from Steve Rubel last week discussing economics and from yesterday we have Robert Scoble’s attempt at defining analytics. Neither is absolutely incorrect but both seem to be going in the wrong direction with their analyses, so let’s see if we can get them back on the right track.

Steve Rubel – Web 2.0 Economics 101

Steve Rubel, VP at Edelman, attemps to teach us all about how supply and demand works. I have very much enjoyed reading Steve’s blog for a long time but lately more posts are negative which I frankly don’t get. Steve makes two economic points:

1. As the supply of content rises, attention decreases and demand lowers – e.g. traffic thins 
2. As the supply of ad-supported media rises, inventories swell – e.g. this equals less ad revenues

One of the commenters noted, "Just stick to using frameworks you understand. Don’t write about economics ever again, Steve." I agree. Had Steve presented these thoughts in the context of the Web without the economics, it might have worked better. Let’s look at each of his points and why they aren’t correct:

1. When the supply of content increases, the attention per site might decrease, but attention on the whole does not and demand overall does not lower. Steve should have also included the fact that while we are adding more content supply, we are also adding more demand overall as more people come online which basically wipes out the his economic theory. Using a real-world example, when CenterNetworks began, did RWW/TC/GO/MASH lose traffic? No, CN just added to the mix. For attention to decrease, it would assume that we are already at our max attention level and any new entry point would decrease attention to the other points of attention to which we are already paying.
2. As we add more supply of ad-supported media (I assume he means sites/blogs that are use advertising as their means of revenue), Steve believes that available inventory increases and thereby lowers the price for the available inventory. In the basic sense, Steve is semi-right here. If supply increases, price typically lowers to increase demand to meet the supply. However again, we are leaving out the apple in the pie. This assumes that there is less demand for the advertising slots. We just learned that Intel is shifting all ’08 TV advertising to online. So now we have additional demand. Additional demand has to be filled at that same rate as currently available (or higher). The bottom line is that until demand goes down (it’s going up now), then price will not decrease because until that happens there won’t be as much fighting for the same ad dollar/euro/yen.

I think Steve had the right ideas in mind but as he noted, he didn’t take any economic theory in class.

Robert Scoble – The "New Metric"

This week we get another chance to check out the ScobleBoard and it’s about metrics (one of my passions). Robert has determined that there are four characteristics to his metric: Audience, Engagement, Loyalty and Influence. You can check out his video (5 minutes) for his explanation – his blog has it defined in words.

Let’s look at why he is off-course with his definitions. It’s too bad too because I think he could be on the right track if he defined the terms better instead of making generalizations that don’t fit. You can’t stick a size 12 foot in a size 5 shoe, won’t work. He uses Engadget (ET), Techcrunch (TC) and Valleywag (VW) as his example sites, so I will as well.

Audience – Robert uses Valleywag to define audience by saying that they have a sizeable audience based on how many people have loaded the player for Kyte – he calls this number 300. Then he explains that when TechCrunch embedded the Kyte player, they had 1,000 people viewing it. So based on that analysis, Robert believes that the TC audience is "at least" 3-4x larger than the Valleywag audience.

Why is this wrong? First, he is using one story as a basis for an entire theory. Second, how do we know that the day he was listed on TC wasn’t a major story day which brought more traffic than normal to the page which would default and load the player? Or the opposite where TC would normally have 5,000 visitors but it was a slow news day or a weekend?

Third, how do we know that VW doesn’t have a larger percentage of people who read their content within the RSS vs. TC (I have no idea). (and yes, I know TC is larger than VW, but you get the idea, these comparisons aren’t logical)

Engagement – "clicking or commenting behavior" – He notes that the average post on TC has hundreds or dozens of comments while the VW posts have generally no comments. He finishes off by saying his blog is smaller but has higher engagement than VW. Then he notes that few people "do anything" on a VW story and he is correct when he says that VW is entertainment and no one wants to interact with that.

What he misses here is that half of the stories on TC have great commenters and half have not so great commenters. And if he was to plot this out showing engagement higher on TC/RS than VW, he would be incorrect for exactly the reason he stated a minute earlier, VW doesn’t expect engagement.

I wonder what he thinks of blogs like Calacanis/Godin who turn off their comments. I know Jason believes that the engagement comes from those who provide their views on his stories on their own blogs and link back to his. How does Robert account for that?

Loyalty – discusses Engadget here – uses Google Reader to explain that there is more loyalty for ET than Gizmodo because ET has hundreds of thousands of readers and Gizmodo doesn’t. So we are using one of the 8 million RSS readers to determine that Engadget has a higher loyalty than Gizmodo – that’s like reading the balance sheet and determining that the company was extremely profitable on it’s own. And let’s not even get into the fact that RSS subscriber numbers are meaningless. Look at Shoemoney and John Chow bait their visitors into picking up their feeds in a contest. More subscribers absolutely does not equal more loyalty. More action on a feed could indicate more loyalty.

Influence – "Influence is separate from the other ones – it’s the numbers of posts on StumbleUpon/TechMeme/Digg/Reddit/Slashdot" – he calls these "news aggregation sites" – he then goes on to say that these sites "look for posts that they want to have in their aggregation". I call a LOLCAT here. I didn’t realize that Digg/Reddit were news aggregation sites. Out of the sites Robert lists, the only one that is a news aggregator is TechMeme. And getting on these sites is easy.

The defense rests.